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Scenario Development Workshop #1 - March 2015


Introduction

The GoLoCarSce project seeks to improve and contribute to the scientific understanding of the effects of Climate Change on the ecological, social, political and economic systems of the small islands of the Caribbean through the development of a set of locally relevant, socio-economic scenarios for the Caribbean. In order to properly implement the project we therefore intend to conduct a Scenario Development Workshop at the UWI, St. Augustine Campus. A well renowned scenario expert Dr. Eric Kemp-Benedict, from our partner institution Stockholm Environmental Institute (SEI), will be co-ordinating and guiding the development of these scenarios.

As part of the objectives of this project, several ecosystem services were specifically considered for their direct benefit to Caribbean islands. These ecosystem services were categorised into consultancies which include: Climate Change Modelling, Food Security Modelling/Cocoa Modelling, Forest Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Modelling, Freshwater Availability Modelling, Coastal Vulnerability Modelling, Human Health Modelling and Socio-economic Modelling. Each consultancy has been designated to technical personnel versed in the particular category of the consultancy. It should also be noted that the climate data has been downscaled for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 for 4 GCMs for particular Caribbean islands.

Workshop Objectives

- To introduce influential policy actors (policy makers and influencers) to the project goals and achievements

- To learn from policy actors, stakeholders, and technical experts in order to inform the social, political, and economic aspects of the project scenarios

Please click here for the Scenario Delveopment #1 Agenda

Scenario Development Workshop Report 1

The stated purpose of the workshop were: a) to introduce influential policy actors (policy makers and influencers) to the project goals and achievements; a) to learn from policy actors, stakeholders, and technical experts in order to inform the social, political and economic aspects of the project scenarios. In these goals the workshop was broadly successful in addition to technical expert from the GoLoCarSce team, there was representation from several ministries, as well as one representative from CARICOM.

The workshop stimulated the participants to engage in an animated discussion and solicited information from participants. There were also some challenges, in that some participants contributed less than others and a few participants were unhappy with providing rather than receiving information.

The workshop was less successful in delivering the intended outputs, as the team decided to give time for the emerging discussions. The intended outputs were: a) a scenario ‘kernel’ for later scenario narrative development and modelling; b) critical uncertainties and trends; c) policy levers, which should be inputs to any scenario models and should feature in scenario narratives; d) indicators, which should be the outputs of scenario models and feature in scenario narratives; and e) a mapping between local scenarios to global climate scenarios.

On three points (a-c) we were partly successful: we progressed partway through developing a scenario kernel (and are still constructing a final version); we did identify uncertainties and trends; and we had an open discussion about policy options and solicited opinions about the structure of a scenario model. The workshop did not result in indicators (d) or a mapping between global and local scenarios (e) a mapping between local scenarios to global climate scenarios.

On three points (a-c) we were partly successful: we progressed partway through developing a scenario kernel (and are still constructing a final version); we did identify uncertainties and trends; and we had an open discussion about policy options and solicited opinions about the structure of a scenario model. The workshop did not result in indicators (d) or a mapping between global and local scenarios €. Those are topics that are being pursued by the team after the workshop.

The first scenario workshop helped to frame the overall scenario storylines. Those will now be combined with quantitative indicators. The main sources of indicators are : a) from the Caribbean-specific- socio-economic models being developed under this component; b) form other project components, where they have provided outputs relevant to socio-economic scenarios; and c) from a global-level modelling effort for the SSPs. The global-level indicators will either be drawn from the online SSP database or an alternative route.

The key external engagement will be the second scenario workshop, to which we will invite policy actors. The scenarios at that point will have been developed, and we will use them to structure a policy engagement exercise during which we will invite policy actors to explore possible futures for the Caribbean.